Demographer's Report

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS - FALL 2024

Predictive Enrollment Analytics is pleased to present this report of findings to the Board of Education and Executive Staff of Cupertino Union School District. Both a Conservative and Moderate projection have been generated for the district. Assuming district revenue is generated on a per pupil basis, the Conservative projection is more suitable for budget planning purposes while the Moderate projection is more suitable for facilities planning purposes. 

KINDERGARTEN ENROLLMENT

In general, Kindergarten enrollment over the past three years has been somewhat erratic. The data also show that the difference between the graduating cohort and the incoming cohort has been somewhat erratic. Note that both studies project a relatively stable trend at the Kindergarten level.

COHORT PATTERNS

A typical student cohort ages from grade to grade relatively unchanged from the previous year. Historically, no cohorts show more than a 5% annual change.

NEW HOUSING DEVELOPMENT

Approximately 6,000 new residential units are projected to be occupied over the next 10 years. During that period, the annual impact in any given year, based on the Moderate Study, is estimated in peak years to be 203 students.

DISTRICT-WIDE ENROLLMENT PROJECTION

Overall the projections forecast a decline across the 10-year period based upon the historical enrollment trends and any projected new residential development.

MORE INFORMATION

A richer and more comprehensive review of both studies is contained in the Final Report accompanying this Executive Summary. A wealth of more detailed information and analysis regarding both studies is also quickly and easily accessible online.

Respectfully Prepared and Submitted by:
The Predictive Enrollment Analytics Team
February 8, 2024